8.07.2014

DEL MAR 8/7

Can't complain about yesterday: our Price Play #10 Tuff Storm won race race 5 at odds of 13-1 and #2 Sunset Glow won the Sorrento stakes at an overlay price of 3-1 in a five-horse field. Nice!

Looking back at that sequence it's tough to see how i missed that late pick-4. I missed the winner in race 6 who was coming off a nice debut win at the Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet.

Let's take a look at the plays for Thursday...

8.06.2014

DEL MAR 8/6: SORRENTO STAKES

A new week of racing begins today at Del Mar with a pick six carryover of $195k and the running of the G2 $200,000 Sorrento Stakes for 2-year-old fillies. The pick six looks competitive and I would not be surprised if we have another carryover.

Best Bet
Race 3
#4 Champion Risk: showed an improved effort in her second start when breaking her maiden over this track. She was claimed by new connections and shows a bullet 3-furlong workout since that last start. She showed good speed and I expect her to be in front again. She returns in a spot where she is not entered to be claimed and her competition doesn't seem to be too tough. I do expect #3, #5, and #10 to get bet so hopefully we can get the morning line odds of 2-1 on Champion Risk.

Price Play
Race 5
#10 Tuff Storm: will be making his poly track debut after racing three times on the turf. His last effort was a good one when he finished third beaten less than three lengths at today's distance. Turf runners seem to really take a liking to the main track and I think he will do just fine. He's coming off a small break since June and shows to maintenance workouts over this surface. I think he can get a good middle-pack trip in this group. He's 10-1 on the morning line.

G2 $200,000 Sorrento Stakes
Race 7
#2 Sunset Glow: no surprises here. She's the morning line favorite and i expect her to be heavily bet. No value in this race but this might be a "free square" in those pick six and pick four bets. She finished a good second at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes against a field of 20 runners. I think her experience will be key against this bunch.

8.03.2014

DEL MAR 8/3 : BEST PAL STAKES

It was weird to have rain at Del Mar on Saturday
This Del Mar meet has been filled with big prices and large payouts and today's card looks like another recipe for that. Be patient, be selective, there's more racing ahead. That's the approach I have been taking when playing this meet. I've been concentrating on daily doubles, exactas, trifectas, and superfectas given that putting 3 or 4 winners in a row has been a difficult task.

I will share my Best Best, my Price Play, and my feature race selection (Best Pal Stakes).


Best Bet
Race 4
#6 Dutch Chocolate: ran well in her first local try here when finishing third beaten a nose for second. She has some speed, is only making her third start, and has some winners in her pedigree. Her odds are 5-2.


Price Play
Race 7
#2 Alpha Bullet: is a horse that just loves to run. He's two noses away from being undefeated in five career starts. He's shown he can run on any surface while sprinting or routing. He's got good early speed and has
a good spot towards the inside part of the track. He's facing a tougher group today but these are the kind of spots where you can get good prices on sharp horses. His odds on the morning line are 12-1.

Best Pal Stakes
Race 8
#4 Bad Read Sanchez
His debut win at Santa Anita was visually impressive. He broke good and pulled away easily. His stakes debut at Los Alamitos was a good effort considering the trip he encountered in the race. He got caught in a tight spot between horses and was bumped repeatedly in a four-horse field. All he needs is a clean trip and he will be tough to beat. His odds are 3-1.

6.13.2014

Los Alamitos Friday 6-13-14

A solid weekend of racing here at Los Alamitos begins with a competitive 9-race card that begins at 7pm. Saturday night features an 870-yard allowance and Sunday night features the return of the 2013 AQHA World Champion Quarter Horse LAST TO FIRE in the Vessels Maturity trials. Let's take a look at tonight's card.

Keys of The Night:

Race 2: #4 Hez Stellar was also my best bet last out when he finished fourth after a bumpy start. He returns at the same level today and will be tough to beat if he can get away cleanly. He has shown a good late kick but needs to avoid trouble early in the race.

Race 8: #3 Fast Moving Fire was one of my keys on May 25 when he was scratched at post time when breaking through the gate and running off (http://www.losponies.com/2014/05/los-alamitos-5-25-14.html). He returns at the same level and looked strong when winning his first start of 2014.

Race 9: #2 Solid Connection is making her first start as a 3-year-old and brings a sizzling 17.60 workout for 350 yards leading up to this. She showed talent as a 2-year-old and qualified for the GI Golden State Million Futurity. Strong connections of Paul Jones and Cesar De Alba.

Selections:

Race 1:  1-6-2
Race 2:  4-8-2
Race 3:  1-3-4
Race 4:  4-7-5
Race 5:  6-4-2
Race 6:  4-8-5
Race 7:  8-4-3
Race 8:  3-5-2
Race 9:  2-7-5

Bets:

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four:
1,2,6 / 4 / 1,3,4 / 4,5,7
Total $27

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four
4,5,6,8 / 1,2,3,4,7,8 / 3 / 2
Total $27

6.06.2014

Los Alamitos 6-6-14

Keys of the Night for Friday:

Race 1: #7 Dashing Over draws a good outside post for her debut. She posted a nice 12.10 drill on May 17 in preparation for today's effort. Trainer does well with first time starters.

Race 2: #3 Call Rona ran an okay third at higher level in her debut after bumping at the start. Expect her to improve in her second start today. Her main threat will be the horse to her outside.

Race 6: #4 Jess a Valiant Chick posted a nice third in her debut and then followed that with a fifth in the Kindergarten trials. Her racing experience is her main advantage against these.

Selections:

Race 1:  7-4-5
Race 2:  3-4-2
Race 3:  1-5-3
Race 4:  8-6-3
Race 5:  3-4-1
Race 6:  4-5-6
Race 7:  4-3-5
Race 8:  5-3-2
Race 9:  6-5-1

Plays:

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four:
7 / 3 / 1,5 / All
Total $16

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four
4 / 3,4 / 2,3,5,6 / 1,5,6
Total $24


Super Saturday - Triple Crown on The Line


36 years. 

That's how long it's been since the last Triple Crown winner. 

I wasn't even born yet.

What else can I say about California Chrome at this point? He's taken us on an unforgetable ride and now he's only 1 win away from immortality. His high cruising speed fits great in the Belmont Stakes
and I don't have any concerns about the distance. 

In my opinion, California Chrome has looked better than ever since settling in at Belmont Park. His stride looks great, he seems to get over the track effortlessly during his gallops, and his workout was very impressive. Everything is set. Let's get a clean and safe trip for all of the contenders.

I think we will have a new Triple Crown Champion tomorrow: California Chrome.

On the wagering side, there is no value in betting California Chrome to win, but there are other ways to make money with California Chrome. To me, he's a freebie, so he's a single in my pick-3's, pick-4, pick-6, Daily Doubles and more.  

Perfect example: I keyed California Chrome in my Kentucky Derby Pick-4 and got back a nice $394 payout. Same with the $170 Kentucky Derby Exacta. 

He will be a very short price in the Belmont. It will tough to make money with him, but at the end of the day, i'm not really looking to make a lot of money. I like him, I know what his odds will be, and I think he's the best horse in the field.

If you take away what this race means and imagine it was just another race on a Thursday, it would lead me to the same type of wagering strategy: single him in my exotics and look for value in the other races where I think the fields are wide open.

I have not finished building my pick-3/4/6 etc plays for Saturday yet but will tweet them out tomorrow so stay tuned to my twitter. What I do have are some blogs with plays for the Met Mile, and an Exacta and Trifecta on the Belmont. 




Here are my full card selections for Saturday's card at Belmont Park and Santa Anita Park!









6.01.2014

Los Alamitos 6-1-14

Construction of new barns with 200 new stalls
Tonight's 9-race card at Los Alamitos has three Thoroughbred (races 1-3) and six Quarter Horse events with a first post of 5:45pm.

Keys of The Night:

Race 1 - #5 Moonshine Ridge comes off a powerful 7-length win at a lower level. He earned his career-best speed figure in that effort and if the class dropper #6 Nome does not show that speed from three starts ago, Moonshine Ridge might be long gone.


Race 7 - #1 This Captains Klas was an unlucky second by a nose last time out after hesitating at the start and getting bumped multiple times. He was more than a length behind the eventual winner early in the race and then closed ground late to just miss the win. A good start from the rail should be all he needs to land in the winner's circle. He return's at the same race condition and same distance as that last race.

Selections:

Race 1:  5-6-4
Race 2:  3-1-2
Race 3:  1-7-3
Race 4:  8-2-4
Race 5:  5-1-2
Race 6:  2-6-1
Race 7:  1-6-2
Race 8:  5-6-3
Race 9:  1-7-3

Plays:

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four:
5 / 1,2,3 / 1,3,7 / 2,4,8
Total $27

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four:
1,2,3,6 / 1 / 3,5,6 / 1,7
Total $24

5.31.2014

Los Alamitos 5-31-14

Keys of the Night:

Race 3 - #6 Marine Place is only making here third career start and looks to have upside for improvement. She rushed to battle for the lead last out after not getting away to a great start and held on nicely for third. She gets a weight break with an apprentice aboard. I like her post position towards the outside, it should have her in a good spot around the turn.

Race 7 - #3 Caliente Cat was claimed back by trainer Justin Clark off that last start when finishing 5th as the favorite. This horse had a 3-win streak with Clark before. Looking for him to get back to that form.

Selections:

Race 1:  2-5-6
Race 2:  3-7-6
Race 3:  6-4-1
Race 4:  3-5-6
Race 5:  2-6-1
Race 6:  2-1-5
Race 7:  3-2-4
Race 8:  1-5-2
Race 9:  3-5-6

Plays:

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four
2,5 / 1,3,5,6,7 / 6 / 3,5,6
Total $30

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four
1,2 / 3 / 1,2,3,5 / 2,3,5,6
Total $32


5.30.2014

Los Alamitos 5-30-14

Walking ring extension and new winner's circle at Los Alamitos
The first ever major Thoroughbred meet here at Los Alamitos is only about a month away.

The main track was extended to a mile earlier in the year and new thoroughbred trainers moved in. One of those trainers is Art Sherman and the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome.

Other improvements include grandstand upgrades, remodeled restrooms, new seating, new walking ring, new winner's circle, 200 new stalls in the barn area and much more. The new summer meet will begin on July 3rd and run for two weeks on a Thursday thru Sunday schedule. The new winter meet will run for three weeks in December.


The night time year-round mixed Thoroughbred and Quarter horse meet moves along like normal so let's take a look at tonight's card. We have four Thoroughbred and five Quarter Horse events on the nine-race card which begins at 7pm.

Keys of the night:

Race 1 - #3 Shamrock Bay comes off the best race in her career when finishing second beaten a nose last out. She was four lengths clear of the third place finisher who returned to win in the next start. She looks to have enough speed to stay close to the leaders and be in a good spot turning for home.

Race 8 - #5 Cartel Breeze has delivered two solid efforts in his two starts. He faced the talented Wild Sixes Cartel in his debut when finishing third and then followed that up with a solid second behind Pink Berreta in the trials to the Kindergarten Futurity. Another slight improvement against this field should land him in the winner's circle.

Selections:

Race 1:  3-6-4
Race 2:  7-5-2
Race 3:  7-4-1
Race 4:  5-7-8
Race 5:  2-6-1
Race 6:  6-5-1
Race 7:  5-2-3
Race 8:  5-3-1
Race 9:  5-6-4

Plays:

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four:
3 / 2,5,7 / 1,4,7 / 1,5,7,8
Total $36

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four:
1,5,6 / 2,5 / 5 / 1,4,5,6
Total $24


5.25.2014

Los Alamitos 5-25-14

I'm back!

Art Sherman talks to the Media
I plan on getting back to posting more often. Fresh off the layoff, I'm ready to go!

Let's take a look at they keys to the card at Los Alamitos.

Race 4: #7 Fast Moving Fire gets a positive class hike off a better than looked win last out. Gets a good outside post position that should give him plenty of room for his late run.


Race 6: #1 Ms Jessee looks too good for this field. Drops in class, has good gate speed, comes from winning connections and should avoid trouble from the inside post.


Full card:

Race 1:  7-2-3
Race 2:  5-6-4
Race 3:  7-6-1
Race 4:  7-1-5
Race 5:  1-6-3
Race 6:  1-2-6
Race 7:  4-1-6
Race 8:  1-4-6
Race 9:  3-4-2

Race 1 - $1 Pick Four
2,3,7 / 5,6 / 1,6,7 / 7 
Total $18

Race 6 - $1 Pick Four
1 / 1,4,6 / 1,4,6 / 3,4
Total $18

Good Luck!

3.08.2014

Santa Anita Big 'Cap Day

We have a spectacular day of racing at Santa Anita Park today. 11 races, full fields, and a Breeders Cup Classic rematch in the GI $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap between Mucho Macho Man, Will Take Charge and Game On Dude. What a race. There's also a very good Kentucky Derby prep race, The GII San Felipe $300,000 San Felipe Stakes. I think California Chrome is ready to fire a big on in the San Felipe. If that wasn't enough, we have sprinters going 7 furlongs in the G2 $250,000 San Carlos and a full field of 10 in the GI $350,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Hungry and thirsty? We have that covered too, there's also a BBQ and Beer Festival going on in the infield today at Santa Anita.

The first 15,000 fans in attendance today at Santa Anita will receive a FREE general admission ticket to attend Breeders Cup Friday on 10/31. Why wouldn't you make it out to Santa Anita today?

Can't make it to the races? Make sure to watch the Big Cap on Fox Sports 1 at 7pm ET / 4pm PT.

Here are my entire-card selections for today. Let's get some winners!

You can also find my $20 play for the Big Cap at America's Best Racing here: http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/abrv/2014/3/7/betting-guide-for-big-cap-mucho-macho-man-will-take-charge/


12.27.2013

New Meet, New Dates, New Track.

Expansion at Los Alamitos Race Course
The 2013-2014 Quarter Horse & Thoroughbred meet at Los Alamitos begins tonight with an 8-race program that features runners such as Sparky E Boy and Chivalry Sr in the fourth race.

In addition to the traditional meet, Los Al will feature five weeks of top level Thoroughbred racing in 2014. The race track is going through the expansion project and is expected to be completed by late January. The five weeks will be divided into two meets, one in July (two weeks) and one in December (three weeks).

Time to begin the new meet on a winning note, let's take a look at tonight's card.

Selections:

Race 1:  4-1-2
Race 2:  7-3-5
Race 3:  3-4-2
Race 4:  3-7-4
Race 5:  1-5-6
Race 6:  3-5-2
Race 7:  1-6-5
Race 8:  3-5-2

Plays:

Race 1 - $10 Pick Four:  4 / 7 / 3 / 3,7 = $20

Race 5 - $1  Pick Four:  1,3,5,6 / 3 / 1 / All = $20

Good Luck!